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PGNIG: 3Q11 results – Huge beat on impressive E&P and lower losses on trading

PGNIG: 3Q11 results – Huge beat on impressive E&P and lower losses on trading

10.11.2011 11:02

PGNIG published its 3Q11 results this morning. The company reported a net profit at PLN 319m (up from a loss of PLN 20 in 2Q11 and down 7% y/y), beating the analysts’ expectations (PLN 195m according to PAP consensus) by a whopping 64%. As we were below the consensus, the figure is even more upbeat compared to our forecast. Net income was boosted by a massive increase in deferred tax assets in PGNiG (4,05 PLN, 0,00%) Norway (est. PLN 244m). Net of this item, net profit would have posted PLN 75m, below both the consensus (62%) and our forecast (20%). EBIT came in at PLN 253m (up from a loss of PLN 106 in 2Q11 and down 25% y/y), 32% ahead of the consensus and 31% above our forecast due to exceptionally strong performance of upstream and somewhat lower losses at the trading and distribution divisions. Given the better underlying performance in all division we expect positive market reaction to the numbers.

Exploration and Production (E&P)
: As the only segment in the black, E&P was the main pillar of PGNiG’s strong 3Q11 results. The segment recorded a robust EBIT of PLN 352m (up 43% y/y and 391% q/q) in 3Q11 versus our forecast of PLN 299m mainly due to higher averaged realized price (US$ 112/bbl versus US$ 110/bbl) and slightly lower operating expenses. The year-on-year performance reflects the marked changed in the macro environment and the stable production: oil prices rose some 48% while production remained broadly flat y/y in 3Q11. Massive quarter-on-quarter increase is the result of higher production (127kt in 3Q11 versus 84kt in 2Q11) and the lack of negative one-offs (PGNiG booked PLN 76m in 2Q11). All told, effective upstream margin averaged US$ 16.1/bbl versus our forecast of US$ 13.6/bbl.

Trade and Storage (T&S): This division posted an operating loss of PLN 19m versus our forecast of PLN-29m. Although the rapidly increasing gap between the import price of natural gas and the domestic tariff dragged the segmental results hedging gains and the reversal of write-downs on receivables from Zakłady Chemiczne POLICE SA (PLN 82m) eased the pressure.

Distribution: The contribution from the distribution division tends to be weak in the third quarter. PGNiG posted an operating loss in division of PLN 7.7bn versus our estimate of PLN-15m. It seems that the positive impact of higher network tariffs (1.7%) compensated for the seasonally lower volumes in the period.

: Net financial results came in at a loss of PLN 119m versus our estimate of PLN-140m. Lower-than-expected losses reflect higher gains on derivative instruments. PGNiG posted a massive increase in deferred tax assets in PGNiG Norway (est. PLN 244m) which pulled up the tax payment to a positive PLN 105m, translating into an effective tax rate of -49.1%. We also note that high import volumes (2.2bcm) throughout 3Q11 are not fully reflected in the P&L, although they eroded the company’s operating cash flows. Indeed, operating cash-flow posted a decrease of PLN 415m throughout the period.

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