Today, the US macro data calendar includes the US jobless claims, Philly Fed index and US existing home sales.
The Philadelphia Fed index will be interesting. Last week, the NY Fed manufacturing index weakened sharply after a rebound in May. The Philly Fed index, on the contrary, weakened already sharply in May, showing a drop from 8.50 to -5.80. For June, a pick up to 0 is forecast. While we believe that a slight increase is not excluded, we are somewhat more pessimistic and see risks for another downward surprise. US jobless claims are forecast to show a marginal drop in the week ended the 16th of June. Over the previous weeks, US initial jobless claims edged up again, which might be a further indication that the US labour market is weakening again. After an unexpected increase in the week ended the 9th of June, jobless claims are forecast to have dropped slightly, from 386 000 to 383 000. We continue to see upside risks as the momentum in the US labour market seems to have eased. Finally regarding the US housing market, the existing home sales will be published on Thursday. After rising by 3.4% M/M to 4.62 million in April, existing home sales are forecast to have dropped by 1.3% M/M in May, to a total level of 4.56 million.