We estimate that the inflation index in December declined to below 1% y/y to 0.8%, in line with the market consensus. This arose primarily from the 4% m/m decline in fuel prices and the lower seasonal increase in food prices than last season. The significantly lower month-on-month rate of increase in prices than arises from purely seasonal factors is largely attributable to the decline in meat prices on the domestic market. This, in turn, is the effect of a reduction in exports as a result of the embargo imposed on Poland by the Russian authorities and the strengthening of the zloty.