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Today, the koruna could rebound, supported by the polish zloty

08.09.2004 9:48

The Czech koruna drop on back of negative sentiment on region yesterday. Initially the unit hovered around the level EUR/CZK 31.65, Monday’s close, but it started to weaken in the afternoon. The most influential were rumors that S&P would change rating of Poland and Hungary. The rumor partly materialize in case of Hungary. Disputes about a next year budget could have struck the koruna as well. Junior partners in the ruling coalition do not agree with raising of expenditures. In reality, it is only play for voters and we expect accord on the budget in short time. The Finance Ministry suggest the budget deficit of CZK 94 bn or 3.3 pct of GDP, the public sector deficit finance minister Sobotka predicts at 4.2 pct of GDP in 2005. Therefore the koruna touched EUR/CZK 31.83 and closed the session only little stronger at 31.80. The unit almost ignored CNB Minutes from the last monetary policy setting board meeting and other events on political scene. Today, the calendar is full. Above all, inflation figures for August could move the market. Consumer prices were flat in August but annual inflation again rose to 3.4 pct. That’s argument against necessity of immanent interest rate hike. Thus, it could be slightly negative for the koruna but the market showed only minimal reaction. Moreover Poland will release GDP growth which could improve the sentiment in the region. Finally, 10-year benchmark tender also could give the direction to the currency market. All at all, we see some room for strengthening of the koruna today.

ČSOB - Investment Research

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