The EUR/PLN steadied in an extremely tight
range around 3.86 ahead of the US payrolls
on Friday, and ended the day in the green
testing the 3.85 resistance after the data
came in, on balance, on the stronger side of
expectations with the October result below
consensus, the September hiring
significantly revised up and the
unemployment rate down to a 5 year low.
Bulls reappeared across the board just
before the release though, and we see the
move as plain repositioning after the
correction on Thursday, rather than an
outright reaction to the data.
Nonetheless, the zloty sailed past the
EUR/PLN 3.85 resistance and into the 3.84
area (a 5 month high against the euro) with
surprising ease. Whether it will continue to
trade in this fashion during the (eventless)
week remains to be seen though - if we see
some corrective action in other CE4 markets
(particularly in Hungary) the road to
EUR/PLN 3.80 may not be as easy as it
could have been.
(CSOB - Investment research)