The Polish zloty started the week on a high
note as strong bids in the EUR/PLN 3.84
area saw it recoup a significant portion of the
recent losses The pair edged down,
hesitantly at first, to 3.83, before making a
break further into the green to below 3.82.
With these g7ains in the pocket one might
feel the technical sell-off which pushed
regional currencies down across the board
last week had ended – we would rather keep
on hold though and wait for an extension of
the rally today to confirm the uptrend.
On the data front, just one piece of
information was worth particular attention.
The Finance Ministry revealed that the net
balance of EU-related transfers came in
negative for the first time since February, at
EUR -88 m last month. This means that we
should see a significant downturn (by just
below EUR 1 bn.) in the October C/A result
when the official report is released in the
second week of December. In the meantime
the domestic calendar remains empty and
without extra stimulus the zloty should keep
to the current range below EUR/PLN 3.84-
3.85. The second half of the week may be a
different story since the Q3 GDP numbers
seem to have the potential to surprise to the
upside.
(CSOB - Investment research)