Actual (4Q/09): -0.6% q/q; -4.2% y/y
Consensus: 0.8% q/q; -2.8% y/y
Previous (3Q/09): 0.8% q/q; -4.1% y/y
GDP figures brought a strong negative surprise. While other countries can enjoy an improving performance (Slovakia) or at least stagnation (Germany), the Czech Republic sank into red again. There are no details in the preliminary release, thus, it is hard do guess what is behind. Low investment activity and decreasing household expenditures are likely to be the main drag. On the other hand, foreign trade seems to be the brightest point of the GDP decomposition.
I would not be surprised to hear speculations about a possible another one rate cut, however the effectiveness of another such a step is a question. For now, we do not change our forecast of stable interest rates in 1Q-3Q.
GDP shock in 4Q puts in question a recovery in 2010. We will wait until more details before reassessment of our forecast (2.1 percent).