HEINEKEN: Feedback Supply chain investor seminar

Heineken hostedan investor seminar last Friday at its largest European brewery in Zoeterwoude, which produces about 9.3m hl (out of a group total of over 200m). The focus of the investor seminar was on supply chain and also included a brewery visit.

With 146 majority owned plants, 65 breweries of which brewing the Heineken brand, bottles and cans being delivered from 160 supply plants, supply chain is for investors a less visible but important factor in productivity of a brewer. Basically supply chain costs represent roughly 52% of total costs (or € 7.3bn). Heineken has realized € 452m supply chain-related cost savings between 2006 and 2010, which represents roughly 50% out of the € 904m savings realized under the Fit-to-Fight (2006-2008) and Total Cost Management (2009-2011) programs.

Heineken did not provide any numbers/targets on future supply chain savings which was not unexpected (we remind that the company has also not provided a precise target for its Total Cost Management Program which runs from 2009-2011). Nevertheless, despite the lack of a clear target, we are confident significant savings still lie ahead (also beyond 2011). This view is backed by the fact that only 11 breweries (out of the 30 key plants currently in the Total Productive Management scheme) have yet achieved the bronze metal of a very performing unit. Route maps are being developed for the other plants to also attain this bronze metal status. Furthermore, Heineken indicated it is expanding the Total Productivity Management approach to an increasing number of aspects of the overall supply chain, such as product development and procurement.

Our View:
The supply chain investor seminar delivered no targets or numbers on future supply chain savings but we nevertheless had the impression that a lot is still possible. Our earnings model incorporates an EBIT (beia) margin increasing from 14.9% in 2010 to 15.8% in 2011 (partly helped by the full year consolidation effect of CCM) which then gradually increases to about 17% by 2015. Based on the known CCM savings target (€ 150m of which € 42m realized in 2010) and further supply chain initiatives we expect, we still view our scenario as a realistic one. BUY and € 50 target price maintained.

[ CURRENT PRICE € 40.32; RATING (unchanged): BUY; TARGET PRICE € 50.00 ]