(7,51 EUR, -2,57%) will report its 2Q11 earnings on 4 August, before market. We expect underlying net profit to rise by 12.4% to € 1,347m (consensus € 1,433m) fuelled by the insurance activities, in the absence of the losses of the US closed block VA and the banking activities (excluding Direct) where we still expect some earnings growth. Net profit should rise by 21.6% to € 1,326m (consensus € 1,325m) after deducting an estimated € 107m restructuring charges and separation costs and adding € 85m from discontinued operations.
2Q11E EARNINGS – MAIN ITEMS
Banking uPBT is forecast to drop 17.5% to € 1,326m which reflects the sale of Direct USA (€ 122m pre-tax earnings transferred to discontinued) and the impact of spread narrowing on Directs earnings, as well as the corporate line turning negative in the absence of realised equity gains (€ 86m in 2Q10). We expect single digit growth for the other business units. The cost-to-income ratio should deteriorate 4.4 points to 57.1%(ING Direct USA is more cost efficient). Risk costs are expect to decline by 7bps to reach 48bps of average risk-weighted assets with most of the improvement coming from Retail Netherlands.
Insurance should report an uPBT of € 502m in the absence of sizeable DAC write-downs (move to fair value accounting in US closed book). Operating profit before tax (in margin format) should therefore surge by 62.4% to € 681m providing that longevity provisions or “reverse-to-the-mean” accelerated DAC write-downs do not distort earnings. New life sales (APE) are expected to rise by 13% to € 1407m. NBV is no longer disclosed.
(37,77 EUR, -1,55%) equity at the end of June is estimated at € 41.0bn (€ 10.84 per share), up € 1bn q/q as we expect earnings and bond gains to be partly offset by the penalty paid upon redemption of € 2.0bn of State aid. We see the revaluation reserve rise by € 600m q/q on lower interest rates.
Full version of Patria Plus report please download here.