IMF sets preconditions even to start formal talks with Hungary

Hungarian talks with the IMF and EU reached stalemate as international lenders seem to keep a firm stance towards Budapest. According to comments after the meeting of Tamas Fellegi, Hungarian negotiator, and Christine Lagarde, IMF chief, there are several obstacles to the deal with IMF: Christine Lagarde’s top priority is probably the assurance of central bank’s independence. Although the IMF does not directly push Hungary to abandon further changes in constitution, it wants to see trilateral agreement of IMF-EU-Hungary. That means the opinion of EU on all recent constitutional changes is going to be crucial.

The European Commission should complete the analysis of new Hungarian laws tomorrow. Although Hungarian government declared it may consider to change the laws, if these are found to be in contradiction with Europeans norms and values, it is not going to be easy for the Hungarian PM (1 1850 CZK, -0,64%) to tackle such a severe political defeat. On the other hand it seems if the IMF feels resistance from the Hungarian side, it may even hesitate to open the formal negotiations about a new stand-by agreement.

That is why Hungarian forint can easily come back under pressure in the upcoming sessions again. Moreover the global nervousness after the series of rating cuts across the eurozone could weigh on the regional currencies too. Hence we would not be surprised if the EUR/HUF pair retests recent highs at the 224 level.