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AGFA: 4Q12 preview

AGFA: 4Q12 preview

5.3.2013 9:22

Agfa will present 4Q12 results on Wednesday 6 March before market.

In Agfa Graphics (where Agfa offers integrated pre-press solutions to the printing industry, including consumables (film, plates and inks), hardware, software and services for production workflow and project and colour management) we expect 4Q12 sales of € 414m and € 19.5m REBIT (4.7% REBIT margin). Consensus is at € 418m Agfa Graphics 4Q12 sales and € 18.0m REBIT (4.3% REBIT margin).

We expect a good performance in Agfa HealthCare where Agfa is converting also its customer base from analogue to digital. The division is also extending its presence in new growth markets such as the imaging centres and/or the private practice segments. Next (41,8 GBP, 0,94%) to the traditional product lines (Classics (film systems) and Hardcopy) we especially expect a healthy contribution from CR/Modalities and HealthCare IT (Imaging IT and HIS/CIS). We bank on € 324.2m 4Q12 Healthcare sales and a 10.3% REBIT margin resulting in € 33.5m REBIT, in line with consensus numbers of € 332m and € 33.0m REBIT.

In Agfa’s Specialty Products(where they offer film products to both the classic film markets and a number of newer segments) we expect € 60m sales and € 1.3m REBIT. Consensus is at € 57m and € 1.0m.

Conclusion
In 4Q12, we expect Agfa to have continued the trend we saw in 3Q12 where Agfa’s growth engines – industrial inkjet and healthcare IT –performed already well. In Graphics, we hope not only for ongoing operational improvements but also a solid growth in the industrial inkjet segment. In Healthcare, we expect them to benefit further from the implemented film price increases. This together with the measures to support profitability should result in further improvement in Healthcare’s gross profit margin.

Although is shouldn’t come as a surprise (after Agfa’s conference call of 6 February 2012) there will be some focus on the effects in the balance sheet of the changes in financial reporting on Employee Benefits - IAS19R. As a reminder, Agfa will adapt its accounting presentation as from January 2013. On the profit and loss statement, pension costs will decrease, mainly due to the removal of the amortisation of actuarial gains and losses related to post-employment benefits. On the balance sheet statement, deferred actuarial gains and losses related to post-employment benefits will be immediately recognised in equity. The impact of these amendments on the net liability of defined benefit plansfor Agfa’s material countries at 31 December 2012 will amount to the unrecognised loss of € 767m. So as a result the net liability on the balance sheet will increase on a pro forma basis from € 402m to the full funded status or € 1,169m (€ 402m + € 767m). As a result the equity of € 978m at the end of 3Q12 will shrink to € 211m (€ 978m - € 767m) on a pro forma basis at end 2012. These changes will have no impact on its pension cash outflows, business flows and current bank covenants.

Overall we see the valuation as attractive from a long-term perspective, but the short-term outlook remains very challenging and visibility is low.


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