CE bond markets join global sell-off, the biggest rise in sovereign bond yields happened in Poland

Global sell-off in core bond and equity markets hit also Central Europe. Regional bond markets, previously benefiting from heavy foreign portfolio inflows, suffered the largest losses. As outflows replaced inflows, prices of regional sovereign bonds began to drop while their yields jumped higher.

The biggest rise in sovereign bond yields happened in Poland where the stock of domestically issued bonds in the hands of non-residents is particularly high. The (global) sell-off has shifted the government bond yield curve higher by more than 20 bps up.

The Polish fixed-income market is facing uncertainty not only because of the global bond shake-up, but also due to the upcoming MPC meeting. Although markets have already priced in two additional 25 bps rate cuts, some doubts in this respect have occurred recently due to neutral comments of the most dovish MPC member, Elzbieta Chojna-Duch. She warned that too low interest rate might
imply low demand for Polish government bonds and for the zloty, which can be understood as a signal that the room for further easing is limited. On the other hand, today’s release of the April retail sales (nominal sales dropped 0.2% y/y) makes a case for a move bolder than a 25 bps rate cut.

Contrary to the Polish bond market, sell-offs in the Czech Republic and Hungary have been less aggressive, probably owing to specific domestic factors. While the Czech bond market was supported by weak supply (also due to successful issuance of retail government bonds), Hungarian bonds benefited from improving domestic fiscal stance. In this respect, it is worth noting that according to sources of Bruxinfo there a good chance that the excessive deficit procedure against Hungary will be cancelled at the next EU council session on June 21.