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The koruna had a relatively dramatic week

15.3.2005 8:40

The koruna had a relatively dramatic week, full of events. It opened last week’s trading at CZK 29.55 per EUR and closed it only slightly stronger, at CZK 29.46 per EUR. Nevertheless, quite dramatic fluctuations, which occurred during the week, are hidden behind this moderate overall appreciation. The koruna was stirred up the most on Tuesday, when it rapidly firmed by 0.6% to a two-and-ahalf- year high of CZK 29.30 per EUR. The overall upbeat mood in the whole region pushed the Czech currency to stronger levels, just as in previous weeks. Tuesday’s fall of the dollar against global currencies and speculations on the inflow of euros from the government Eurobond issue also encouraged the appreciation. We have seen many times that the Central-European currencies benefit from every major fall of the dollar, and this was also true last week. Hitting a new high made Thursday’s meeting of the central bank dramatic. The agenda of the meeting did not originally include monetary issues. However, the market was afraid, and its concern was well-founded, that the bank might carry out a move against the koruna. This was one of the reasons why the koruna weakened quite dramatically on Thursday. However, the fall of the Polish zloty, which was affected by political uncertainty, was probably a more important reason for this correction. Finally, some investors obviously took profits from the previous appreciation of the koruna. Thus practically none of the numerous economic indicators released last week influenced the market in the end.

This week’s trading on the foreign-exchange market should be calmer than last week. The calendar of events includes practically no economic indicator releases; therefore the koruna should be particularly at the mercy of neighbouring Central-European markets. The Polish zloty in particular, which has come under pressure due to sales of the Polish currency, should counteract the appreciation of the koruna now. Thus the koruna will probably stagnate within the bounds of ….

(CSOB - Investment research)

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