The koruna fell agains the euro, but hit all-time high against the dollar

The Czech koruna fell yesterday, as the drop of the dollar is the most likely incentive. The koruna slid together with the Polish zloty, which is much more sensitive to the EUR/USD movement. Moreover, the domestic currency is under pressure of the central bank view on interest rates change. The stream of the central bank’s officials words didn’t stop yesterday. First, a clash between the central bank and the Finance ministry arose after previous vice-governor Niedermayer skeptical words on the euro adoption in 2010. The ministry objected the statement. Later on, the central bank tried to mitigate the quarrel, as it said the decision of the next government, starting its term in 2006, would be crucial. Yesterday two other members of the CNB Board, particularly Pavel Racocha and Pavel Stepanek, talked in favor of stable interest rate outlook.

Moreover, they added new inflation report will not significantly changed outlooks for inflation and GDP. Finally, governor Tuma said wage growth in 2005 would pose no inflation risk. Summing up, no one could believe in rate hike in foreseeable future now. Nevertheless, that’s unclear why the central bank after years of silence and cautious words starts heavily communicate with public. The only reason may be a campaign ahead of a CNB board redesign in February. The Convergence report released yesterday brought nothing interesting. It is critical to high the Czech public budget deficit and praised low inflation and long interest rates.

Today the koruna may again watch the EUR/USD development, as the calendar is empty. Thus we expect another slight weakness.