Unipetrol’s main subsidiaries will report their Q3 2002 results this afternoon. While the situation for refinery products and on petrochemical markets improved in Q2 compared to dismal Q1, this trend did not hold in Q3 (and we expect flat product prices and margins in Q4 as well); therefore, significant y-o-y performance worsening is expected.
Of the main subsidiaries, the summertime flooding in central Europe hit Spolana the hardest, and Chemopetrol and Kaucuk were also affected. We reflect only losses from curbed production in our projections, direct flood-related damages will be reflected in full-year projections.
Chemopetrol Kaucuk
Q3 2001 Q3 2002e change Q3 2001 Q3 2002e change
Revenues 17,621 12,740 -28% Revenues 6,091 5,516 -9%
EBITDA 1,464 643 -56% EBITDA 819 552 -33%
EBIT 666 -98 -115% EBIT 316 108 -66%
Pre-tax Income 367 -279 -176% Pre-tax Income 169 98 -42%
Net Income 367 -235 -164% Net Income 162 98 -39%
Benzina Ceska rafinerska
Q3 2001 Q3 2002e change Q3 2001 Q3 2002e change
Revenues 10,731 9,127 -15% Revenues 35,344 28,54 -19%
EBITDA 736 574 -22% EBITDA 1,257 80 -94%
EBIT 382 222 -42% EBIT 622 -853 -237%
Pre-tax Income 44 -100 -326% Pre-tax Income 569 -1,051 -285%
Net Income 45 -100 -323% Net Income 432 -817 -289%
Paramo Spolana
Q3 2001 Q3 2002e change Q3 2002e
Revenues 4,293 3,321 -23% Revenues 2,840
EBITDA 496 220 -56% EBITDA 480
EBIT 363 109 -70% EBIT 66
Pre-tax Income 142 97 -31% Pre-tax Income -49
Net Income 142 97 -31% Net Income -49
We believe a new tender for Unipetrol is likely to be called soon given the recent withdrawal of Agrofert, the tender winner, from the current tender process. Apart from the increasing weight of Unipetrol fundamentals, the prospect of the entry of a credible strategic investor into the holding is likely to drive the stock at present. We have upgraded our short- and long-term recommendations for Unipetrol stock from hold to accumulate, with a target price of CZK 93 per share.
Jiri Soustruznik