Unemployment rate fell in October to 8.5%, from 8.8% in September. The number is better than expected (Patria forecasted stagnation of the unemployment rate) and reflects economic recovery evident in other indicators.
However, accelerating outflow from the labor force contributed to the lower unemployment as well. While about 13 thousand people monthly were leaving the labor force in 1998 without finding a new job, the number has grown to 18 thousand in 2000. Therefore, there is about 180 thousand people who left the labor force and did not find a job. Some of them are early retirees, who burden the state purse elsewhere.
The number, nevertheless, is positive, especially as there is an increasing supply of new jobs: labor offices registered about 55 thousand of vacancies in October, almost double the nember from the beginning of 2000.
We have adjusted our forecast of unemployment and predict that 8.7% of labor force will be job-less at the end of 2000. The number will keep rising in 2001, but will probably remain in single-digit region.