Deputy Ali Babacan will present the government's medium-term economic programme on 16 September. Key points of interest will be:
* IMF - any form of IMF participation (loan, monitoring)
* Main fiscal targets (primary budget balance, debt-to-GDP ratio)
* Privatization, public finances reforms
We doubt whether there has been any material convergence between the Turkish government and the IMF on key issues that have prevented a loan agreement so far. The prevailing view in Ankara (and Istanbul) seems to be that Turkey doesn't necessarily need a stand-by loan from the IMF at all. In the absence of a lender of last resort, focus will be on the budget objectives, the planned policy measures and the government's ability and willingness to achieve these targets. Given this government's relatively poor record in setting and meeting restrictive policy targets, we anticipate Wednesday's announcement with a certain dose of scepticism.