Actual (Aug): CZK -18.1bn
Consensus: CZK -12.4bn
Previous (Jul): CZK -32.5bn
Current account gap exceeded expectations as dividend outflow burdened the total balance. 12M C/A deficit increased to CZK 75bn in August from CZK 68bn in July. In August 2009, the gap was CZK -64bn.
Trade balance remains positive, however, surplus is steadily declining as recovering domestic demand pushes up imports. Income balance reflects mainly increasing outflow of dividends paid by local companies to foreign shareholders. This flows reached CZK 131bn this year compared to CZK 115bn in Jan-Aug 2009.
External imbalance start to increase again this year. Our forecast of the current account deficit is 2.1% of GDP in 2010 compared with 1.0% of GDP in 2009. This can be seen as relatively safe level and should not cause any worries.