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Forint appreciated to this year’s record high

Forint appreciated to this year’s record high

11.5.2011 11:31

Czech bonds were again supported by favourable CPI data yesterday. The yield of a 10y government benchmark slipped to 3.8% level, which is the lowest level in more than five-months. Thus, sentiment on the Czech bond market remains bullish no matters what is happening in the euro-zone. Moreover, the market even skipped any per-positioning ahead today auction of a 10Y benchmark. We think that the Czech MinFin will easily sell this domestic bond on the domestic market (indicative amount stands at CZK 6bn) but demand might not be so huge given higher prices on the secondary market.

The Hungarian forint benefited from the positive sentiment on global markets and strengthened to EUR/HUF 263.30 overnight. This is close to the year’s record of 263.05 suggesting that the currency may establish a new appreciating trend soon. Inflation came in above expectations in April at 4.7% Y/Y. Similarly to March, higher food prices were responsible for the increase, but this time clothes produced a stronger seasonal increase than usual, which also contributed to the higher figure. Durable goods and services kept low inflation.
The overall picture remained broadly unchanged, headline inflation is running above the central bank’s 4% Y/Y forecast for the average of 2011, while the underlying inflation trend remained favourable due to the lack of demand side inflationary pressures. This situation could put the central bank’s credibility at stake as it may miss the target again in 2011 and 2012.

The Polish zloty was trading sideways on Tuesday. The EUR/PLN currency pair remained range-bound between 3.92 EUR/PLN and 3.94 EUR/PLN during the whole session.
Today, the Monetary Policy Council’s (MPC) decision on interest rates will mark the start of this month’s flow of macroeconomic figures. As we said earlier, we don’t expect an additional step of monetary tightening to take place today, despite the fact that inflation is anchored far above the inflation target. We think that the highlight of the day could rather be the following press conference. Comments made by president Belka proved to be a valuable source of information on further policy moves. Since we bet on a rate hike in June, we expect that Belka could make some hawkish comments today.

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