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TEXAF is stepping up the development tempo

TEXAF is stepping up the development tempo

31.5.2011 9:23

Texaf is a Belgian investment company with real estate, industrial and financial interests in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Texaf’s properties are located in much sought-after neighbourhoods and demand for residential properties and officesin prime locations of Kinshasa remains strong. In addition to its real estate assets, the group has a sandstone quarry and a mechanics/metal workshop. Immotex, Texaf’s subsidiary, is about to sign a rental contract with an international organization. It would require the conversion of 23,000m2 of unused warehouse space into offices and includes a pre-financing arrangement. We anticipate that it will enhance the group’s intrinsic value by about 5% based on a DCF method.

Partnership with international contractor:
Texaf is looking for a construction partner capable of executing the above-mentioned project. The group has been working with local subcontractors so far. The size of the project necessitates the involvement of a large contractor however. We believethat a partnership with an international construction group (e.g. Chinese), could give a boost to the development of Texaf’s other properties.

Some rays of hope in DRC:
Despite 51 years of independence, poverty and corruption are widespread in the resource-rich DRC. The country risk is high because of the absence of law enforcement and legal uncertainty related to property ownership. The absence of an adequate banking system also hampers economic growth. There are some rays of hope however: 
 - In 2009 DRC signed a Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility with the IMF and in 2010 the country received $ 12bn in multilateral and bilateral debt relief. 
 - China has become an economic driving force in Africa in an effort to secure the supply of oil and minerals. In exchange for commodities, China provides cheap financing for infrastructure. Africa is also a significant export market for China. 
 - There is also some improvement on the legal front as DRC is joining OHADA. This organization was established by 14 countries in 1996 to harmonize business law and to improve legal security in Africa.

Revised forecasts and valuation:
We have lowered our EPS forecasts for 2011 and 2012 by respectively 11% and 8% due to the slower-than-expected turnaround at Mécelco and lowered turnover estimates at Carrigres. Our sum-of-the-parts method generates a value of € 235 per share based on conservative assumptions. This value excludes a recovery of DRC’s outstanding debt (€ 63m excluding interest) towards Imbakin, a Texaf subsidiary. We’ve used a discount of 30% to reflect the country risk and illiquidity of the stock.

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