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EUR/PLN pair may test 4.25 soon

EUR/PLN pair may test 4.25 soon

10.10.2011 11:44

Donald Tusk should be the first prime minister in Poland to be re-elected for the second term. According to the preliminary results of parliamentary elections (after 99% of votes counted) Tusk’s Civic platform (PO) has around 39% while current coalition partner (Peasant party, PSL) reached 8.5%. It means that current coalition has the majority of 236 seats in 460 seats Sejm. What is more important that the opposition is not unified and PO can partly rely on support of post-communists or extreme-liberals from Palikot movement. The main opposition party (Law and Justice, PiS) ranked as second (with approximately 30% support) but it has very weak coalition potential anyway. One can hardly imagine post-communists or extreme liberals to be in serious talks with conservative PiS.

From the market point of view the outcome of elections is clearly positive. The PO lead coalition should focus more on fiscal discipline and promises to reduce the debt burden to 48% of GDP till 2015 and to introduce permanent rule capping the public spending. Although the measures to reach the fiscal goals are not specified yet, it is worth noting that the PO is not in favor of tax increases and it plans to reduce main VAT tax rate by 1 pp.

All in all in the short term we can see a positive reaction of the Polish zloty and the pair could move to the area near 4.25 EUR/PLN. There can be also certain positive spillovers on neighboring regional currencies, especially if global nervousness calms down a bit in light of the upcoming US earnings season.

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