AGFA-GEVAERT: Weak 3Q’s

As expected, Agfa published weak 3Q’s as the company is dealing with the impact from both higher silver prices and a slowing economy.

3Q group sales are down 3% to € 719m, a touch below the € 725m (-2.3%) CSS estimate and well below the € 741m we expected. Excluding FX, sales would have been up 1.1% y/y. REBIT drops 82% y/y to € 10m (1.4% margin) from € 54m (7.3%) a year ago, in line with the € 8m CSS estimate and our € 7m forecast. The € 19m in restructuring & non-recurring charges is higher than expected (€ 10m) and as a consequence the negative € 9m in EBIT and the € 37m net loss are worse than expected (CSS: € 2m EBIT loss, € 26m net loss; KBCS: € -2m EBIT loss, € 23m net loss).

The higher restructuring & non-recurring costs are mainly restructurings as Agfa steps up efforts to bring its cost basis in line with the lower top line. The Agfa Investor Relations stated that FY11 restructurings will be € 50m vs. € 40m previously guided for and the € 30m normal annual run rate.

Looking by division, Graphics does OK but Healthcare disappoints with a weak top line.
GS sales are down 3% y/y to € 387m (although still up 1.6% ex-FX), in line with the € 385m CSS and our € 390m, while the € 4m REBIT is even better than the € 1m negative REBIT exp by CSS and our € 3m (positive) forecast.

HC posts an 8% drop in sales however to € 267m (-4.6% ex-FX), weaker than the € 281m CSS and our € 185m. Agfa refers to governments scaling down healthcare budgets and hospitals postponing their investments. As a result, also the € 6m REBIT comes in below exp (€ 9m CSS, € 10m KBCS).

SP sales (+25% to € 65m) is better than exp (€ 60m) but the € 1m REBIT is in line with to better than expected (CSS: € 1m, KBCS: - € 5m).

The depressed 3Q’s are obviously also visible in the weak cash flow generation (only € 2m operating cash flow, down from 34m a year ago), and net debt grows to € 339m (from € 313m at end-2Q and € 161m at end-FY10) due to the € 20m cash out for the acquisition of the Brazilian WPD business .

As usual, Agfa provides no outlook statements.

Our View & Conclusion:
Weak 3Q11 results, as expected, as Agfa is suffering from both a weakening economy and high silver prices. Our FY11 sales and reported earnings estimates will come down a bit but 3Q REBIT was in line with expectations overall. For FY12 we will probablyfurther cut our sales forecasts but we expected limited changes to our profit estimates.

Hold maintained –attractive valuation from LT perspective, but very challenging ST outlook.