Cofinimmo will publish its FY12 results Friday 8 February before market. We expect a net current result per share of € 7.72 (incl. € 0.71 one-off indemnity payment) vs. € 7.47 guided by the company. This represents a 13% increase y/y or 2.8% excluding the one-off. We’ve updated our model which leads to an increase of our TP from € 91 to € 97 and rating from Hold to Accumulate.
4Q12 results preview:
The year-end was a very quiet period for Cofinimmo. We therefore expect only a slight increase in net rental income of 1.2% on the back of external portfolio growth in the distribution property network and healthcare segment, tempered by ongoing vacanciesin the office segment. Operating costs are expected to increase proportionally, leading to q/q growth in operating result (before result on portfolio) from € 44m to € 44.7m. The higher debt on the other hand is estimated to offset this growth, leading to a bottom line (EPRA) result of € 28.2m vs. € 27.9m in 4Q11, up 0.8%.
We believe that operations at Cofinimmo have gained momentum and at these levels we spot a good entry point. In the first place, the company worked out an exit scenario for part of its office portfolio by redeveloping them into residential units, which de-risks the portfolio. Secondly, the strong emphasis on diversification and expansion of its healthcare segment (focus on operational mgmt, financial performance of the operators and residual value of the nursing homes) is expected to support the secure cash flows and enhance value for the shareholders. Thirdly, we expect the solid balance sheet to be preserved by the company’s smart financial management. Finally, we are confident that Cofinimmo will be able to maintain its € 6.5 DPS, which corresponds to a 7.2% implied yield. This is attractive given the company’s low-risk profile (95% occupancy on a € 3.4bn portfolio with a 12.3 years lease maturity).
TP up to € 97, Accumulate rating:
The updating of our model leads to a higher valuation. Using an Economic Value Added model over an explicit 5-year forecasting period and a WACC of 6.7%, we attain a new theoretical fair value of € 97 p.s. We therefore up our target price from € 91 to € 97 and increase our rating from Hold to Accumulate. This new target price corresponds to a dividend yield of 6.7% and a P/NAV(EPRA)13E of 0.94x.