Bank CEO Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, in a round organized by Dziennik, has estimated that non-performing consumer loans in Poland have already surged to a level of PLN 45bn. The CEO added that over 600k people have more than 6 loan agreements.
The estimate assumes that non-performing consumer loans stand at 25% of total consumer loans, which would be very negative for the banking sector if true. However, officially reported retail NPLs were a much lower 3.8% at the end of 1Q09 and were down 20bp y/y. Thus we believe the estimate is an exageration that will be ignored by the market.