Actual (May): 0,0 % m/m, 1,3 % y/y
Consensus: 0,1 % m/m, 1,4 % y/
Previous (Apr): -0,1 % m/m, 1,8 % y/y
Czech CPI stayed flat in May, while the y-o-y inflation went down to 1,3 %. On year-on-year basis, food, beverage and fuel prices are the key disinflationary factors as they were very high in mid-2008. However, the impact of the fuels is being muted by the current growth of oil prices.
We expect further disinflation in consumer prices in the months to come. Average inflation is expected at 1,2 % in 2009. Another CNB rate cut is very likely at their June 25 meeting.