Forex and fixed income markets in Cenral Europe were trading basically sideways yesterday as worse-than-expected macro figures and the NBP meeting failed to bring a significant markets action. The same can be actually said about a comment from Fitch rating agency, which said it was unlikely to change Hungary's rating (BBB) until it has more information on the outcome of the country's talks with the International Monetary Fund about a credit line. Recall that Hungary will face huge financing need as more than EUR 5 bn worth of FX-denominated debt will mature in 2012.
As far as the NBP meeting is concerned, the central bank delivered expected decision and left interest rates unchanged. The arguments for the decision were more or less clear ahead of the meeting - economic outlook deteriorates whereas the weaker zloty fuels inflation which persists at a heightened level far above the inflation target.
At the press conference, NBP’s president Belka reiterated that the risks for inflation are balanced and added that central bank will continue intervening on the spot market to stabilize the zloty exchange rate. According to the press release, the NBP expects inflation to remain elevated in months ahead due to high commodity prices and the weaker zloty. We expect that inflation could touch the upper threshold of the NBP’s tolerance band (3.5%) already in January 2012. Nevertheless, we estimate that next year’s inflation might reach 3.3 % in 2012.