According to the Polish press agency citing Treasury Minister Mikolaj Budzanowski, the state treasury plans to sell both and PZU shares in the accelerated book building (ABB) process by the end of 2013. The minister added that there are currently no plans to return to the SPO process and the participation of retail investors.
We see the news as neutral as the further sale of minority stakes in both financial institutions is part of the 2012-2013 privatization program announced earlier this year. Poland’s state treasury plans to lower its stakes in the companies to a minimum 25%. The treasury currently owns a 35.2% stake in PZU and a 33.4% stake in directly and another 10.3% via BGK bank. We believe share overhang is already anticipated in the stock prices of both and PZU. We expect the sale of another 10% of PZU shares in the months ahead, while the transaction should not take place before February 2013, as the state treasury agreed to a 180-day lock-up period during the last process in July, when it placed a more than 7% stake.