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PGE: 4Q12 results below the consensus, disappointing dividend payout guidance

PGE: 4Q12 results below the consensus, disappointing dividend payout guidance

14.3.2013 10:17

PGE reported a net loss of PLN 420.1m (down from the profit of PLN 1.82bn a year ago) in 4Q12. The result was lower by 47.4% by the market consensus (source: PAP) and 27.5% than our own house expectations of a loss of PLN 329.7m. We see the main discrepancy to our forecast on the level of net financial result which came in a loss of PLN 13.1m vs our expectations of PLN 76m profit. Our expectations for the EBIT loss stood almost in line with reported loss of PLN 488m. Whilst it appears to us that the company did not increase the provisions reported on the February 19 we believe that the market consensus was too low and has underestimated the company’s level of losses. Still, we see the management’s dividend proposal at DPS 0.86 as subscale and unsatisfactory. Our expectations are at DPS 1.5 while market consensus (source: Bloomberg) stands at DPS 1.37. This lower-than-expected dividend guidance may indicate that the company expects finally to starts at least one of its key projects (Opole or Turow) or expects some outlays regarding the nuclear power plant project or shale gas exploration. We look for more clarification to be presented on the today’s analyst’s
meeting scheduled at 10:00 CET in company’s headquarters. Overall, on the back of this disappointing DPS guidance we expect the market reacting negatively.

Revenues arrived at PLN 8,659.7m (19% y/y, up by 24.7% q/q) in 4Q12, inflated by the PLN 1,138.7m revaluation of the early termination of longterm contracts. This was already reported by the company and we believe was not included in the market consensus. The adjusted revenues came in only 5.1% higher than our expectations and almost fully in line with the market consensus. The total generation volumes decreased in 4Q12 by 7.0%y/y which stands almost in line with predictions. The production of energy in lignite-fired power plants fell by 7.4% y/y while the hard coal-fired power plants recorded a decline of 12.3%y/y and generated 2.78 TWh which is slightly higher than our forecast. The pump storage power plants recorded an increase of 27.3%y/y up to 0.14 TWh while hydro power plants generation increased by 14.3%y/y due to more favourable hydrological conditions in the period. The gas-fired CHP production decreased by 2.6% down to 0.75 TWh in 4Q12. The electricity distribution volumes stood at 8.0 TWh down by 1.2%y/y and 8% higher than our expectations of 7.4 TWh. Sales to end-users stood at 7.96 TWh up 2.1% y/y.

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