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Erste: 2Q13 preview - results due tomorrow July 30 B/Mkt

Erste: 2Q13 preview - results due tomorrow July 30 B/Mkt

29.7.2013 12:12
Autor: Tomáš Tomčány, Patria Finance

Erste Bank (593 CZK, 0,95%) will report its 2Q13 figs tomorrow, July 30, B/Mkt. We expect the bank to report net income of 139 mln. EUR, up 30% y/y due to one-off tax gain. Operating income should, however, decline 1.5% y/y according to our estimates.

Erste Bank - 2Q13 preview 

EUR mln. 2Q12A 2Q13E Patria  2Q13E Cons.* y/y Patria y/y Cons.
Net interest income 1 315 1 211 1 206 -7,9% -8,3%
Net commision income 435 450 446 3,4% 2,4%
Net trading result 28 90 79 221,4% 180,4%
Operating income 1 778 1 751 1 725 -1,5% -3,0%
Operating expenses (942) (923) (922) -2,0% -2,2%
Operating result 836 828 806 -1,0% -3,6%
Risk provisions (401) (437) (431) 9,0% 7,5%
Pre-tax profit 241 149 136 -38,2% -43,6%
Net profit 107 139 134 29,9% 25,2%

 * consensus estimate as compiled by Erste's IR dep.
Conference call on Tues, July 30 @ 09:00 CE

Erste Bank - 1H13 preview
EUR mln. 1H12A 1H13E Patria  1H13E Cons.* y/y Patria y/y Cons.
Net interest income 2 652 2 452 2 447 -7,5% -7,7%
Net commision income 866 898 894 3,7% 3,2%
Net trading result 122 168 157 37,7% 28,3%
Operating income 3 639 3 518 3 492 -3,3% -4,0%
Operating expenses (1 887) (1 855) (1 853) -1,7% -1,8%
Operating result 1 751 1 663 1 641 -5,0% -6,3%
Risk provisions (982) (840) (833) -14,5% -15,2%
Pre-tax profit 728 451 437 -38,0% -40,0%
Net profit 454 315 310 -30,6% -31,7%

Low interest environment and subdued loan demand likely continued to weigh on bank’s operating results in 2Q13. Net interest income (NII) should come in lower by 7.9% to 1.21 bln. EUR. Net interest margin (NIM) should drop to 2.57% from 2.72% a year ago. On the other hand, revenues from commissions and trading should remain solid. We expect income from net fees and commissions at 450 mln. EUR, higher 3.4% y/y. Net trading result may even triple from a year ago to 90 mln. EUR.

Operating expenses may decline in 2Q13 by 2.0% y/y partly offsetting lower revenues. Operating result is thus expected to decline 1.0% to 828 mln. EUR. Other operating results should be negatively impacted by higher financial transaction tax (-16 mln. EUR), banking tax in Hungary booked in full year amount (-25 mln. EUR) and 80 mln. EUR loss on sale of Ukrainian assets closed in 2Q13. Bad loan provisions may increase to 135 bps over average total loans from 119 bps a year ago (or +9.0% to 437 mln. EUR). Bottom line is expected to be boosted by extraordinary tax item in amount of 120 mln. EUR.

The bank lowered its outlook on June 24. Erste sees pre-provision operating profit down 5% in 2013 as lower revenue won’t be completely offset by lower costs. Erste also predicts 15% decline of loan-loss provisions and a return to profit in Romania. Investors will focus on Romania which is a key swing factor for Erste’s 2013 result. We expect pre-provision operating profit down 4.4% in 2013 and provisions to decline 13.8%, both within Erste’s guidance. Note that recent spike in regional yields of fixed income assets could help stabilize Erste’s interest margin.

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