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The Hungarian forint continues to lose ground gradually

The Hungarian forint continues to lose ground gradually

27.04.2006 9:43

The Hungarian forint continues to lose ground gradually as an ongoing negative development in core bond markets weighed. Hence as we expected the EUR/HUF paddled to the 265 area, while it currently approaching the 266 zone.

It worth noting that the forint was also hit by an information published in local press, which questioned the government accounting practices in term of Hungary’s motorway construction programme. According to local daily Népszabadság some of the government's off-budget motorway constructions may be included in to the budget to fit EU accounting rules. The paper said that if these doubtful motorway sections needed to be included in the budget again, the deficit would go up by HUF 84 billion (0.4% off GDP). Recall that the government targets the ESA95 public budget deficit to 5.0% of GDP this year. Finally, we should add, Népszabadság daily used as a source of its information the central bank, which denied later on that such an information was provided by this institution.

While high- yielding emerging markets currencies may continue to suffer due to bearish environment in core bond markets and the forint will not be an exception in this respect, there are also two domestic interesting events. First, coalition talks between the Socialist Party and Free Democrats start today. Secondly, there is a 3Y bond auction today. In our view, especially the former event might move with the forint however much will depend on the politicians how many information they will allow to leak. Bear in mind that the talks will continue on Friday too.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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