PGE: Review 3Q25
PGE released its 3Q25 results yesterday aft-mkt close. EBITDA was reported at PLN 2.6bn and net income at PLN 0.6bn (both in line with prelims). Revenues came in at PLN 13.8bn (vs cons. 14.1bn). EBITDA was mainly weighed down by weaker performance in Coal segment. In addition, PGE recognized PLN 0.3bn in provisions related to the restructuring of Dolna Odra power plant and the voluntary leave program. Net income was further reduced by PLN -0.6bn revaluation of embedded derivatives.
The main driver of the recur. EBITDA was Supply segment which reached PLN 0.3bn in EBITDA (vs -0.1bn y/y) thanks to higher sales result on G-tariff. The Distribution segment also supported the result with EBITDA of PLN 1.3bn (vs 1.1bn y/y), benefitting from lower electricity purchase costs to cover balance differences and higher other revenues. Gas segment delivered EBITDA of PLN 0.2bn (vs 0.1bn y/y) on improved electricity sales margins. These positive effects were partially offset by weaker performance of coal-fired facilities which generated PLN 0.2bn (vs 0.5bn y/y) due to tightened CDS spread. Other segments performance remained broadly stable y/y.
Overall, the reported results were in-line with earlier prelims. We note, the stock continues to trade with significant discount compared to EU peers (PGE’s EV/EBITDA 1.7x vs peer’s average 6.1x). However, in short-term the stock valuation may remain under pressure due to negative development in regulatory environment (implied by recent government officials’ comments). We await further details, especially regarding potential regulatory changes in the Distribution segment which is PGE’s largest EBITDA contributor (~37% of 9M25 EBITDA).
| Revenue |
13 785 |
15 562 |
-11.4% |
14 079 |
-2.1% |
14 135 |
-2.5% |
| EBITDA |
2 644 |
2 458 |
+7.6% |
2 742 |
-3.6% |
2 808 |
-5.8% |