On Monday the currency pair mirrored Friday's poor American figures. Nevertheless, the fall of the greenback caused a slight correction disturbed by the N.Y. business confidence index (NY FRB Mfg Index). On the contrary the dollar hardly responded to figures from the US Treasury showed new portfolio inflows that covered the trade deficit. Today a set of figures is released. Industrial production in Europe might be weak. This with the American industrial production, here we expect its increase, could help the dollar. A decrease of US inflation, however, might have limited impact only. On the whole we expect a weak depreciation of the single currency even when negative dollar sentiment remains. The currency pair EUR/USD might move between 1.2290 and 1.2390 today.
ČSOB - Investment Research