Philip Morris CR (PM CR) is expected to release its full-year 2002 CAS results in the coming days (i.e., a month prior to its annual shareholder meeting). We forecast a PM CR 2002 net profit of CZK 3.73 bil. (USD 127 mil.)--given our 100% dividend payout ratio estimate, this implies a gross per-share dividend of CZK 1,360 (+10% y-o-y).
The 2002 results will be affected by decreased demand in Slovakia given a considerable excise-tax increase there at the beginning of last year, though this will be offset by PM CR's lower material costs due to the appreciated Czech currency (vs. the US dollar) last year. We estimate that PM CR's "material/operating-revenues" ratio fell to 33% last year, down from 37% in 2001.
CAS unconsol. 2002e 2001 % change
(CZK mil.)
Sales 13,458 13,594 -1.0%
EBITDA 5,669 5,328 6.4%
EBIT 5,239 4,885 7.2%
Pretax Income 5,411 5,007 8.1%
Net Income 3,733 3,407 9.6%
EPS 1,360 1,241 9.6%
DPS (gross) 1,360 1,240 9.7%
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