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The Polish zloty clawed back a large portion of the yesterday’s losses

7.4.2006 10:21

The Polish zloty clawed back a large portion of the yesterday’s losses on the back of the peace-making debate between the PiS and PO as well as thanks to a soft tone of the ECB governor’s comment on the future monetary policy outlook. The market opened at 3.9800 EUR/PLN and 3.2400 USD/PLN and edged higher in the afternoon as both the PiS chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski and the PO leader Donald Tusk struck a conciliatory tone in the debate preceding the dissolution vote in the Sejm. The liberals offered to work with the ruling conservatives on key legislation at least till the Autumn in an attempt to dissuade the PiS from entering into a coalition with the left-wing populists from Samoobrona.

Taking a closer look this is basically the same offer which was turned down by Kaczynski earlier this week. The statement of Samoobrona leader Andrzej Lepper indicated that any potential agreement about a participation of this party in the government hadn’t been reach yet and was far from certain .It seems that there are roughly equal chances for continuation of the recently played by the PiS “changing majority game” and for a formal settlement with populists about their role in the government.

The zloty gained additional support the Trichet’s comment on monetary polity of the ECB curbed expectations of further rate hikes, but just before the closing the currency lost some ground. With no domestic economic releases scheduled for today the FX will be sensitive to political developments as well as movements of major global currencies. Since, it is currently hard to predict the final outcome of the political debate triggered by a motion to dissolve the parliament, the zloty can remain shaky. From the second perspective the American payrolls will be in the center of market attention today, as they will also determine a global investment attitude toward emerging markets, including Poland.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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