. Initially it rose higher to stop at the EUR/CZK 28.30 zone. An escalating political crisis in Slovakia made the koruna to give back its gains to sunk to 28.51 in the afternoon. The market lack the power to push the koruna to a new high now, therefore some traders square their position in the CZK. However, the koruna didn’t break out of the current trading band.
Today the calendar is heavy. First of all the January inflation is due. It came at 1.4 % m/m or 2.9 % y/y, well above the forecast. It might be slightly positive for the koruna. However it didn’t alter our prediction of flat interest rates in the fist half of 2006. Later in the day, 14-year tender may also lure some attention. Since the situation in Slovakia is rather clear after the agreement on early election, the koruna may partly recover. At least it may not dip below the 28.56 level.
(CSOB - Investment research)