Cesky Telecom: The TDC/DB consortium has reportedly raised its bid to above CZK 65 bil.

The Czech government’s privatization committee for Cesky Telecom is to evaluate the three binding bids today, and its recommendation will be submitted to the Cabinet tomorrow. The general expectation is that the Cabinet will not approve a tender winner since the bids are reportedly well below the government’s minimum price of CZK 80 bil. (for a 51% stake, i.e., CZK 485 per share). Unless the Cabinet climbs down and accepts a lower price in such a scenario, it could postpone the sale until after the upcoming June general election, or negotiate further with (some of) the bidders. Our fair value estimate for the 51% Cesky Telecom stake is CZK 370–380 per share, not including any control premium.

The Czech Pravo newspaper today quotes a unspecified “well informed” source as saying that the TDC/Deutsche Bank consortium has raised its bid to “above CZK 65 bil.” (assuming that this relates to a 51% stake, this yields CZK 395 per share).

Separately, Aliatel, a major fixed-line competitor to Cesky Telecom, says that it does not accept Cesky Telecom’s conditions for providing call-by-call service, and that it will seek the telecommunication regulator’s ruling on the price Cesky Telecom intends to charge for competitors’ access of its local loop. This is important toward determining how much room CT’s competitors would have to compete for voice traffic. However, we do not expect any regulatory decision on this issue any time soon, thus neutral news at this stage.

(Ondrej Datka)