Philip Morris CR (formerly Tabak), the least liquid SPAD-traded blue-chip stock, announced today that its 2000 net income stood at CZK 3.2 bil. (CZK 1,173 per share), which is 6% above our own forecast of CZK 3.04 bil. It increases the likelihood of a large dividend to be paid out of 2000 profits. Based on our original net income estimate, we expected a CZK 1,051 gross dividend per share, which implies a 17% gross dividend yield on yesterday’s close (CZK 6,118 per share). Based on the actual net income figure, our assumption of a 95% dividend payout ratio implies a CZK 1,114 per-share gross dividend, i.e., a 18.2% gross yield (in theory, the maximum dividend scenario is that 99% of the 2000 earnings is paid out together with past retained earnings - CZK 162 per share - totalling CZK 1,324 per share). The actual dividend and its timing will be announced on the day of the Philip Morris CR AGM (April 9). Last year, the dividend was paid out a month after the AGM. The ex-dividend date is April 3, 2001; trading in the stock will be suspended April 3-April 9. Our recommendations are short-term buy (mainly thanks to the dividend yield) and long-term accumulate.
(Ondřej Daťka)