Cesky Telecom: Termination rate cuts

The Czech Telecom Office (CTU) has lowered termination rates in both the fixed and mobile segments, according the Czech newspaper MF Dnes. The cuts reportedly range from an average of almost CZK 3 for mobile operators, and CZK 0.38 for fixed operators. The move is in line with market expectations of termination cuts by regulators especially following the EU announcement in March regarding of implementing rate cuts across Europe to bring operators' charges in line with their costs, and we would expect this to be an ongoing exercise for regulators across CEE.

We estimate a limited impact on CT, on a net positive mobile impact and a net negative fixed-line impact. Given Eurotel's mobile market share, it is a net interconnect payer, and termination rate cuts should reduce its costs. On the other hand, CT's fixed market share means it is a net receiver of interconnect payments, which will be reduced with lower payments from other network operators.

We maintain our Hold recommendation on CTEL, with a CZK 510 fair value estimate. We see limited catalyst to drive the shares in the near-term, and at 6.0x and 20.9x 2006F EV/EBITDA and P/E respectively, we believe the shares remain fairly valued.