The Slovak koruna rebounded against the euro yesterday and returned to the level of 37.50. This movement was mainly influenced by the stabilisation on the emerging markets and worse data from the US economy. Today, the calendar contains April HICP data. The released figure (4.4% y/y) shouldn’t play a big role in today’s trading as it does not deviate much from the overall inflation report released last week. However, they are important for the central bank’s interest rate decision and the NBS usually comments on them. The international factors should remain dominant also today as all eyes will be on the US inflation. Lower CPI might result in further koruna appreciation below the level of 37.50. Nevertheless we don’t see much scope for further gains due to the political uncertainty and dividend payouts. The gas company SPP announced yesterday that it will pay total dividends in amount of SKK 19.9 bn from which SKK 9.8 bn should be probably transferred abroad.
ČSOB - Investment research