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The Polish zloty fell victim to position squaring on Friday

The Polish zloty fell victim to position squaring on Friday

04.09.2006 10:20
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The Polish zloty fell victim to position squaring on Friday ahead of the US payroll report and the upcoming long US weekend. The softer bond market sentiment also underpinned the corrective action and we saw the unit shed roughly 0.5% against the euro. The quick knee-jerk rise in the dollar (after the US payrolls came in broadly in-line with expectations) was pretty much ignored by the market though as the global repositioning and the fall in bond prices which led the zloty past 3.95 and into the 3.96-3.9750 EUR/PLN area both ended before the data were released.

Tensions remain elevated within the governing coalition, as Andrzej Lepper suggested over the weekend that continued friction could lead to earlier elections early next year. Samoobrona has not gone much further with its pre-election campaign rhetoric though and simply reiterated that it would not back the budget in the current form (which is still unknown to the broader public). Politics remain unnerving and the zloty is likely to stay under pressure in the coming days.

The 4.00 EUR/PLN level seems the obvious target at the moment and we could see it under attack later this week. Regarding today’s trading with the US players off on leave we should see less action and hence more range trade from the unit at least until after Labor Day. Zloty eases on domestic politics. After the critical comments of Hungarian central bankers concerning convergence programme on Thursday sentiment in the Hungarian market did not change on Friday.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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