EC could release verified CO2 emissions in EU for 2006 today.
Our view:
CO2 emissions for 2006 could have impact on the price of CO2 credits for NAP I., which are currently traded at EUR 1.3/ton but should be neutral for CEZ as it has its expected production of 36.5TWh from coal power plants covered. The release of verified CO2 emissions could have give more color on EC cuts for NAP II. (2008-2012). The direct impact on CEZ is rather limited as for the moment as we still don’t know how much CO2 credits it will get as the local government has not decided on reallocation of national quota yet. Note however that CEZ will be probably forced to buy CO2 allowances for NAP II. but it will also be reflected in electricity price and thus positive for CEZ based on its production mix.