AKZO NOBEL: Preview 1Q11 results

Akzo (49,48 EUR, -0,24%) Nobel will release 1Q11 results on 21 April before market. We expect no major changes from the volume trends witnessed in the past two quarters.

(+3-4%) with a somewhat higher price component vs 4Q10 (+4%), leading to an overall 9% revenue growth. We suspect that higher sales prices will not yet compensate for the further risen rawmat prices and forecast a 70bps reduction in EBITDA margin with overall still 3% EBITDA growth in absolute numbers, which is in line with consensus. We still believe that Akzo Nobel will eventually be able to pass the higher rawmat prices and remind to have seen quarterly price swings as high as 9% in the previous inflationary peak in 2008. We stick to our BUY rating as we continue to like Akzo for its market leadership positions, emerging markets exposure and discounted valuation vs key coating peers. BUY, € 54 target price.

Recommendation: Buy
Current Price: € 49.60
Target (50,27 USD, 0,06%) Price: € 54.00

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