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MELEXIS: Uncertainty over Japanese impact

MELEXIS: Uncertainty over Japanese impact

26.7.2011 9:49

Melexis will publish its 2Q11 results on Thursday 28 July before market, followed by a conf call at 5pm CET. The release should confirm that business remains buoyant, although there could be some slowdown related to the Japanese earthquake in 2Q11 and/or 3Q11. We expect Melexis to announce the pay-out of a € 0.60 gross dividend later this year. Pending the release we stick to our BUY rating and € 16 target.

Our View:
2Q11 forecasts: Melexis has guided for 2Q sales comparable to the 1Q11 level (€ 58.9m). Our projections (€ 58m, +4% y/y, -1.7% q/q) and the consensus (€ 59.8m) are in line with this target. This also leads us to a € 13.4m operating profit forecast (23% margin, down 10% y/y mainly due to stepped-up investments in R&D and SG&A). The consensus is counting on a € 13.9m operating profit. The main question regarding the 2Q results is whether or not there will be a noticeable slowdown caused by the earthquake in Japan in March, and if so, how big will this impact be. Our estimates suggest only a limited impact on the business in 2Q.

Can Melexis stick to its FY outlook? At the 1Q release, Melexis repeated its FY guidance, hinting at high-single digit sales growth, a gross margin above 45%, and an EBIT margin in excess of 23% (all based on € /$ at 1.40). Our and consensus estimates are in line with these targets, although we believe there is some downside risk due to the Japanese tragedy earlier this year. At its investor day in late May, the Melexis CEO declared that there will probably be some impact from the Japanese events in 2Q and 3Q but this will only be a timing effect (i.e. postponements rather than cancellations). Management said that the exact effect remains very hard to quantify however, and will most likely not be material enough to make Melexis alter its FY guidance.

Buy maintained: business remains very buoyant, the outlook is bright, and the valuation is still highlyattractive (10x P/E11 only, vs. 14x historical average, 5% dividend yield), prompting us to reiterate our BUY rating and € 16 target. We stick to this rating despite the risk of a temporary slowdown in business caused by the Japanese events, which we believe the current low valuation can absorb.

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