Besides the G20 Summit and Greek confidence vote, attention will today go out to the payrolls report in the US. The German factory orders and final services PMI’s in the euro zone will be interesting, but will probably be unable to have a lasting impact on markets.
In September, the US payrolls report came out materially stronger than expected. Payrolls jumped by 103 000 and also the previous figures were significantly upwardly revised. Nevertheless, payrolls growth remains insufficient to bring the unemployment rate significantly down. For October, the consensus is looking for a marginally softer outcome (95 000), but we believe that a slightly weaker figure is not excluded. In September, US payrolls were boosted by the returning (37,45 USD, 1,77%) strikers, which added 45 000 to the payrolls. Apart from this factor, we believe that the payrolls should not be materially different from the previous month. Government payrolls will continue to act as a significant drag on the headline figure. The US unemployment rate is forecasted to stay unchanged at 9.1% in October, for a fourth consecutive month.