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AHOLD: Jumbo + C1000

AHOLD: Jumbo + C1000

24.11.2011 13:13

Jumbo has won therace to acquire C1000 according to the Dutch press. This will dramatically change the competitive landscape in the Dutch food retail sector. Last year, C1000’s turnover amounted to € 3.7bn with 450 stores and a market share of 11.5%. Jumbo + C1000 will have about 750 supermarkets, about € 7bn in sales and a market share of 23%. This compares with 850 Albert Heijn stores with a 33% market share. Ahold (9,14 EUR, -0,70%) generates about € 10.5bn in sales in the Netherlands. It is interesting to note that the C1000 stores will not be converted into Jumbo stores.
This is the second ambitious move that Jumbo makes. Two years ago they bought Super de Boer. They ended up keeping 180 of the 300 Super de Boer stores. The conversion of the Super de Boer stores into Jumbo stores will be completed in March 2012.

Our view:
The fact that Jumbo has won the race came as a surprise to the market. Analysts saw Edeka as the most likely winner. Moreover, Jumbo's CEO Frits van Eerd mentioned earlier this month that a take-over of C1000 by Jumbo is unlikely."We are interested in everything, but we have to be realistic." Jumbo pays € 900m for all the C1000 shares according to the press. Big question now is how Jumbo will finance the deal. Cooperation with a financial player is therefore likely.

Jumbo is definitely a competitor to be reckoned with. We anticipate that the Dutch food retail market will continue to consolidate further. The next largest player after AH and Jumbo is Aldi with a market share of 7.9% followed by Plus (6.0%). We reckon that competition will heat up further because for the first time, Albert Heijn will have a sizeable competitor with a nationwide coverage. We included already margin pressure in our spreadsheet for Ahold. We are counting on a REBIT margin for the Netherlandsof 6.00% in 2012. This compares with 6.85% in 2010 and 6.20 in 2011.
We maintain our Accumulate rating on Ahold. Management convinced us during Monday’s Capital Markets Day that the group is clearly ready to pursue growth thanks to a much leaner organization and harmonised business processes and skills that are being leveraged across all banners.

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