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Rally in gold and base metals prices

Rally in gold and base metals prices

27.1.2012 13:36

Brent crude prices rose on Thursday amidst a rising risk appetite boosted by the Fed’s “promise” of zero rates until late 2014. As a result, the price of March contract is currently seen above 111 USD per barrel.
Today, the focus of global markets will be on the US Q4 GDP report. The consensus expects an annualised growth rate of 3.0% Q/Q. A figure at or above consensus might support sentiment on risk and hence support the price of oil. Nevertheless, prospective gains might be capped by the US dollar as its reaction on the figure remains unclear.

Base Metals

Base metals complex gained support from the weaker US dollar and posted significant gains in a risk-on market environment. Copper even breached 8500 USD per ton (USD/t) level (see the chart) and aluminium is seen well above 2200 USD/t. A current rally in base metals prices has been supported by believes that China is likely to engineer a soft landing. The truth is that the country’s imports of both copper and aluminium in recent months provided bulls with relatively strong arguments. However, we’ll keen to see the mood of Chinese consumers after a week-long Lunar New Year holidays.

Precious Metals

Gold extended its previous gains on Thursday and settled even further above 1700 USD per troy ounce level. Precious metals complex in general and the yellow metal in particular are clear winners of the Fed’s decision to keep rates at record-low levels for an extended period of time. Moreover, we think it looks like another QE-programme has a reasonably good chance to be adopted in one of the next few meetings. Such a move would probably further support the price of gold…


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