- Forint still potentially most vulnerable
- Zloty can rely on interventions
The Czech koruna stayed relatively calm and ignored correction of the zloty and the forint. Especially the forint remains somewhat vulnerable as it needs to secure further assistance from the IMF. Furthermore, it faces temporary freeze of EU funds.
Hungarian spokesman András Giró-Szasz tried to calm down the fears. He said that according to the Ecofin, finding additional savings in budget is merely a technical issue and if the government takes appropriate corrective action, sanctions may be lifted soon. Nevertheless the quarrel with the EU is a more complex issue, which involves disagreement on several issues including Central bank independence. Hence any deal with the IMF seems still far away as the fund is willing to start official talks only after Budapest resolves all the conflicts with EU.
That said, the Hungarian forint still remains potentially most vulnerable to any deterioration of global sentiment. The low yielding Czech koruna is the most immune and the Polish zloty stay somewhere in the middle. The zloty can still rely on the interventions of the NBP, in case of renewed sell offs. Yesterday, Central Bank governor Marek Belka reiterated that the bank reserved the right to intervene on the foreign currency markets as it had done last year.