Today, the Czech Statistical Office released figures on retail sales for May. It more or less confirmed that the domestic demand remains weak - rising inflation (real wages will decline this year), higher taxes and fears of unemployment weigh on sentiment of Czech households. Thus, the May figure (2.1% y/y decline) for retail sales confirms the ongoing weakness of the Czech economy, which well explain why the CNB has recently eased its policy again.
Later today, the regional eye-catcher is monetary policy meeting of the National Bank of Poland. Although we expect Poland’s inflation to climb to more than 4 again in the summer, in relation to the European Football Championship and a weaker zloty, May’s surprising decline to just above the upper threshold of the tolerance band of the National Bank of Poland reassures us that the central bank (NBP) may not necessarily resort to a rate hike again. That said, end-of-year inflation might even fall below the upper threshold of that tolerance band, against the backdrop of significantly decelerating economic growth. These tendencies should be confirmed by a new inflation report, which will be available to the Monetary Policy Council at the meeting.
Regarding the ECB meeting (Thursday), we believe that the cut in interest rates is likely. We think that this might, consequently, support regional currencies. In the case of the koruna, the next significant support is seen at EUR/CZK 25.38 (55-days moving average).