Ackermans: Exit Spanogroup?

Local newspaper De Standaardmentions that the details around the potential sale of Spanogroup are unravelling. Spanogroup is 72.92% controlled by Sofinim, which in turn is 74.0% controlled by Ackermans & van Haaren. Unilin and Filip Balcaen are mentioned as potential buyers. Financial newspaper De Tijd mentions a whisper number of € 100-150m for Spanogroup as a whole.

The fact that Spanogroup could be up for sale doesn't come as a surprise, since AvH has been very vocal on the fact that it aims to reduce the number of investments in its Private Equity portfolio. Based on FY11 reported numbers, we carry Spanogroup (100% consolidated) at € 118m in our model. Clearly, we would have liked to have a more updated set of figures to work with, but that's not part of AvH's semi-annual reporting policy. We did, however, learn that Spanogroup after a rough patch continues its upward path, with Aspiravi going strong as well.

In terms of pricing, AvH’s transitive stake of 53.96% implies a carrying value of € 63.6m (2.4% of NAV), which makes it the biggest stake in Sofinim’s Buy out & Growth capital portfolio. If we go by the mid-range of the whispertakeover number, NAV could potentially increase by € 0.86 p.s. (+1.05%). At this stage, we see no reason to adjust our SOTP model.

Based on yesterday’s closing prices, we estimate AvH’s NAV at € 80.86 p.s. with a discount of 16.56%. Our target price of € 70 implies a discount of 14.06% to target equity value and leaves 3.75% upside potential. We maintain our buy rating.