will release its 4Q 2012 results on Thursday, 21st February, B/Mkt. Regarding NWR’s 4Q12 Trading Update disclosed on 14th January, we expect revenues of 290 mln. EUR, EBITDA of 12 mln. EUR and a net loss almost -37 mln. EUR. Consensual numbers are more or less in-line with our estimates.
- 4Q12 preview
| Sales | 391,6 | 290,2 | 295,0 | 281,5 - 354,2 | -25,9% | -24,7% |
| EBITDA | 85,0 | 11,5 | 13,9 | (18,0) - 33,2 | -86,5% | -83,7% |
| EBIT | 40,7 | -32,5 | -29,0 | (62,0) - 34,9 | x | x |
| Net income | 8,8 | -36,8 | -37,2 | (59,4) - (18,0) | x | x |
| EPS | 0,03 | -0,14 | -0,14 | (0,22) - (0,07) | x | x |
- 12M12 preview
| Sales | 1 632,5 | 1 303,0 | 1 307,8 | 1 294 - 1 367 | -20,2% | -19,9% |
| EBITDA | 454,0 | 238,3 | 240,7 | 208,8 - 260,0 | -47,5% | -47,0% |
| EBIT | 235,4 | 64,4 | 67,9 | 34,9 - 126,8 | -72,6% | -71,2% |
| Net income | 128,7 | 10,6 | 10,2 | (12,0) - 29,4 | -91,8% | -92,1% |
| EPS | 0,49 | 0,04 | 0,04 | (0,05) - 0,11 | -91,8% | -92,1% |
* poll cons. (22 analysts)
Conference call: 21st February at 11:00 (CET)
We have used mining cash cost per tonne of 85 EUR per tonne for 4Q12 to get 81 EUR per tonne for the FY12, slightly below NWR’s guidance of 82 EUR/tonne (ex-FX) as FY12 production volume exceeded original plan. We can imagine there could be even higher positive surprise on both costs and earnings, especially regarding 3Q12 mining cost which came significantly below estimates. Nevertheless, we do not see this possibility as a kind of game changer that can have larger than one-day trading impact.
The company has already sent week guidance as well as thermal coal prices for the FY 2013. We expect EBITDA to fall to 145 mln. EUR in 2013 (we stand 20% below consensus) and a significant net loss of -60 mln. EUR this year. We could not rule out that shares may try to follow improving benchmark coking coal prices, nevertheless, we see continuing coal demand weakness in the region as a main threat. Our target price is 70 CZK per share with SELL the rallies recommendation.